As mentioned in our first election analysis, a grand coalition, the only safe scenario securing a parliamentary majority, is highly unlikely. Moreover, any involvement of the Communist Party (KKE) in a coalition government is also politically unrealistic.
The undecided vote
In the Pulse RC poll, a specific question was posed to those declared as undecided: “Which voting choice are you closest to?” Again, 37 percent stayed with the “don’t know/no answer” response, while 7 percent chose the “blank ballot/no vote” option. Further, 8 percent declared themselves closer to New Democracy, 14 percent were closer to Syriza, 3 percent to Pasok, 5 percent to KKE, 3 percent to Hellenic Solution, and 8 percent were closer to the Greeks Party, while 15 percent remained undecided.
Adding this data, the projected party support would be: ND: 33.5 percent, Syriza: 28 percent, Pasok: 10.5 percent, KKE: 7 percent, Hellenic Solution: 4.5 percent, Mera25: 5 percent, Greeks Party: 4.5 percent.
With this distribution of votes, in either a six- or seven-party parliament, no majority can be obtained either under an ND-Pasok or a Syriza-Pasok-Mera25 coalition scenario.
George Arapoglou: That is not an absolute proposition, although it produces a tighter scenario for the leading party compared to the one derived from the standard proportional distribution of the undecided. But this scenario also has a significant proportion ‒ 37 percent still uncommitted ‒ that still cannot be assigned to any party. We should also note that it is characterised by a high margin of statistical error. It also does not include what usually (though not always) happens in the final days of the election campaign: The leading party gaining strength. What the responses to this question clearly show us is that there is no tendency for a “one-sided” or strong bolstering effect for any party.
AD: In relation to the previous opinion polls, is it true that the findings point us, in the event of a second ballot, towards a one-party or coalition government headed by New Democracy and not towards partnerships that exclude the winning party?
George Arapoglou: In a second-election scenario, the possibility of a one-party or coalition government that includes the leading party appears far more likely. If the first party receives a seat bonus (under the new electoral law of enhanced proportional representation which would apply in a possible second election), it becomes even more difficult to form a majority government without its participation. Even after the first elections under a system of simple proportional representation, forming a coalition government without the first party would not be an easy task, though not impossible. Indeed, there are even scenarios in which the first and third parties cannot produce a governing majority.